With a Presidential election on the horizon, many people are left wondering how it could impact the housing market. It’s natural for uncertainty to arise, and if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Omaha this year, you may be asking yourself if now is the right time to make a move.
The good news? Historically, Presidential elections have had only a small, temporary impact on the housing market. So, there’s no need to hit pause on your real estate plans just yet. Here’s a closer look at decades of data to help you understand how home sales, prices, and mortgage rates have responded during previous election years.
Home Sales: A Temporary Slowdown
One trend we’ve seen in the months leading up to a Presidential election is a slight slowdown in home sales from October to November. This is likely due to a sense of hesitation among some buyers, who prefer to wait until after the election to make a decision.
However, this slowdown in home sales is generally minor and short-lived. According to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the following year. This pattern has been consistent since the early 1990s.
For homeowners and buyers in Omaha, this means that while the market may cool slightly before the election, activity usually picks back up quickly once the uncertainty passes.
Home Prices: Election Cycles Don’t Disrupt Pricing Trends
Another common question is whether home prices drop during election years. The answer is: not typically. As Ryan Lundquist, a residential appraiser and housing analyst, notes:
“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
In fact, home prices have historically continued to rise, regardless of election cycles. Based on NAR data, after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased in the following year. The only exception was during the 2008-2009 period, which coincided with the housing market crash – an event unrelated to the election itself.
For Omaha homeowners, this means that unless the local market experiences unusual economic conditions, prices are expected to follow their current trend.
Mortgage Rates: Likely to Decline
Lastly, mortgage rates are another key area of concern during an election year, as they directly affect your monthly payments. Fortunately, looking at the last 11 election years, Freddie Mac data shows that mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them.
We’re already seeing that trend in 2024, and experts predict that rates will continue to ease slightly throughout the rest of the year.
What This Means for You
So, what’s the takeaway? While elections can create a bit of uncertainty, the overall impact on the housing market tends to be small and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:
“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in Presidential election years compared to other years.”
If you’re considering purchasing a home in Omaha, the higher inventory and lower rates increase your buying power, abilitiy to negotiate better terms, and give you more options.
For most buyers and sellers, the election cycle won’t dramatically affect their plans. That means you can move forward with confidence, knowing that the housing market is resilient and remains strong, even during election years.
Bottom Line
If you’re planning to buy or sell a home in Omaha, NE, during this election cycle, there’s no need to put your plans on hold. History shows that the housing market is largely unaffected by Presidential elections, so you can feel confident in making your move.
